Presidential Historian Allan Lichtman Predicts A Biden Win In November

Allan Lichtman is a name you may not have heard of. He is a highly respected American University Professor who was Harvard trained in history and quantitative methods. He has used that training to create something called the “The Keys To The White House” which is sometimes referred to as the “13 keys.”

Simply put, it is a prediction system used to rate 13 specific markers to predict the outcome of the American presidential elections. Some of the keys are qualitative, some are quantitative, but the key (no pun intended) is that the incumbent must have at least 8 or more marked as “true” to win re-election. Since it’s creation in 1981, the system has accurately predicted the winner every single time – except 2000 (they predicted Gore would win, which is did – the popular vote).

The 13 keys are as follows:

  1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

In 2020, Trump (the incumbent) had 7 “false” keys, which meant the 13 keys would predict that he would lose. And he did. Although the keys have not been updated individually, Lichtman has come out recently and stated that “a lot would have to go wrong for President Biden to lose” and that it is truly his race to lose.

Listen to a lengthy interview he did with the Times Radio here.

But, as has been stated many times, polls and predictions do not vote. PEOPLE VOTE. So regardless of the keys, encouraging as they are, please vote. Bring your friends, coworkers, neighbors.

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