If Courtland Sutton’s touchdown pass on fourth down against the Buffalo Bills looked incredible, it was. Next Gen Stats can quantify how incredible, too.
Next Gen Stats started in 2018, and it said Sutton’s touchdown for the Denver Broncos was the most improbable completion it has ever tracked.
Russell Wilson scrambled out of pressure and lofted a pass up to Sutton in the end zone. Sutton caught it and was ruled out of bounds, but a replay reversed that decision and gave Sutton a touchdown. He barely got his feet in bounds.
The probability of the pass being completed was 3.2%, according to Next Gen Stats.
It’s fine to be skeptical of a statistical model that can ascertain the probability of a reception being made down to tenths of a percent, but we can all agree it was a really impressive play.
Watch a few NFL games and you’re bound to see something you’ve never seen before. On Monday night, it was a catch that was about a 97% chance of being incomplete but turned into a touchdown.