This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:
Crypto bulls are almost always bullish.
Right now is no different, as bitcoin (BTC-USD) is among the many assets getting a boost following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut.
There’s another potential big catalyst coming, and it’s a fairly binary one. But bitcoiners being bitcoiners, they think that prices can rise in either scenario.
The event is the US presidential election.
I recently spoke to two of the prominent bitcoin faithful, Tom Lee of Fundstrat and Michael Novogratz of Galaxy Digital, at the Future Proof festival in California. Both see a path to the election as a win-win for bitcoin.
Former President Donald Trump has been an outspoken proponent of crypto. He’s pledged to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who is perceived as a crypto foe by the industry. He has said that the US Treasury would retain any crypto seized from criminals, although he stopped short of saying the government would purchase bitcoin. He made a big splash speaking at the crypto industry’s biggest conference in late July.
Vice President Harris hasn’t staked out an official position on crypto, so many of the vocal crypto faithful have thrown their support behind Trump.
Lee said that some of bitcoin’s recent gains are linked to odds of a Trump win. On the flip side, “I don’t think bitcoin necessarily responds to Harris becoming president,” he said. “Bitcoin will then focus on a dovish bet because in an easing cycle, this is a big tailwind for risk assets, and that would be bullish for bitcoin.”
Novogratz, a center-left Democrat, said Biden’s crypto approach was “painful.”
“I think Kamala Harris will pivot,” he added. “I think she’s a practicalist.” As he said earlier in the conversation, “being anti-crypto is a little bit like being anti-dog. It’s just not smart politics. And so I think the Democrats are getting there. But Trump got there first.”
Read more: Trump vs. Harris: 4 ways the next president could impact your bank accounts
Standard Chartered head of crypto research Geoff Kendrick is another believer.
“I think we will go to fresh all-time highs by the end of this year, no matter what happens in the US election,” Kendrick told Yahoo Finance this week. “A Trump presidency should be more positive, given he’s been relatively constructive on bitcoin.” He predicted that bitcoin would rise to $125,000 by the end of 2024 if Trump won. Like his peers, no Trump? No problem. A Harris win could still mean bitcoin at $75,000 by year-end.
So, bitcoin goes up no matter what? As Lee said when I pointed this out, “Since 2009, bitcoin has gone up no matter what.”
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